A new model from the University of Washington projects that coronavirus deaths in California will peak in late April, with a total of 5,086 deaths predicted in the state through Aug. 4.

The study from the university’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, which aims to “determine the extent and timing of deaths and excess demand for hospital services due to COVID-19 in the U.S.,” assumes the continuation of strong social distancing measures and other protective measures. It was published March 26 and updated on March 31.

The forecast shows that California should have enough hospital beds to meet demand throughout the course of the pandemic. It predicts that daily fatalities will peak April 27 with 122 deaths. 

(Image: A screenshot of the California projections from the IHME study.)

The U.S. as a whole will see peak deaths on April 15, according to the study, with a total of 83,967 deaths predicted through Aug. 4.

“In addition to a large number of deaths from COVID-19, the epidemic in the US will place a load well beyond the current capacity of hospitals to manage, especially for ICU care,” writes IHME director Christopher J.L. Murray, one of the study’s authors, in the publication’s conclusion.