photo credit: Courtesy of CNRFC
A screenshot of the California Nevada River Forecast Center's Russian/Napa
observed river/reservoir map on 3/31/25.

Depending on the season, North Bay residents look for specific details in our weather forecasts, like flood stage height on the Russian River in the winter or wind speeds in the Mayacamas in the fall. 

These details affect our behavior, whether we hunker down or flee from flood or fire, and they come from as many as a dozen federal agencies, including the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

NOAA includes the National Weather Service and the California-Nevada River Forecast Center, and their forecasters rely on the U.S. Geological Survey and the U.S. Forest Service as well.

So what could happen to our forecasts — and to us — if Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency continues cutting jobs and from those agencies?

Right now, forecasting and weather warnings work like this: It starts with atmospheric modeling at NOAA, where meteorologists look at graphical maps to assess how much water is in the sky and how fast it’ll arrive over land, for example.

Their models are shared nationwide where regional staff input that data into more specialized forecasting programs. In our case, that’s staff in Sacramento using programs focused on rivers and their watersheds.

“We run these models every day, 365 days a year. Sometimes we update them more than once a day because if we're in a flood event, you know, we're issuing forecasts around the clock four times a day,” Whitin said.

Brett Whitin is a hydrologist with the California-Nevada River Forecast Center. Essentially, he takes what meteorologists predict,....adds what satellite-synced gauges report, and runs it all through water-focused models to get what’s called a stream-fill forecast. 

“It's a collaborative process between the meteorologists, the hydrologists, and also our partnering agencies, like the Corps of Engineers, to kind of get it all into our modeling framework and ultimately give a forecast at the lower reaches of Guerneville,” Whitin said.

Once hydrologists like Whitin refine their forecast, the National Weather Service gets involved to do what meteorologist Brian Garcia says is, “Vocalize it.”

His office is the one that issues flood warnings based on all this collaboration, and if the Sonoma County Department of Emergency Management opens up, his office will put someone in the emergency operations center.

“We're going to have meteorologists in the room with the decision makers, so that the decision makers can have the latest and best intelligence, weather intelligence, at their fingertips, because some of these decisions have to be made in real time, and to have to call a call center someplace delays it a little bit,” he said. “You know, it's not terrible, but it's so much nicer to have somebody embedded within the Emergency Operations Center.”

The National Weather Service office in Monterey also issues fire weather watches and Red Flag Warnings for the Bay Area. And if a fire breaks out, they’ll send a meteorologist to CalFire.

“The incident meteorologist is critical for giving fire intelligence, working closely with the fire behavior analyst, giving fire intelligence to the fire crews so they can make the plan for the day and that they can fight the fire safely for themselves as well, so we don't lose firefighters on the fight,” Garcia said.

Garcia says National Weather Service meteorologists worked the Tubbs, Nuns and Kincaid fires.

But this could all change depending on the federal budget. And Lynda Hopkins, chair of the Sonoma County Board of Supervisors, says she is concerned. 

“This is not just data for the sake of data or studies for the sake of studies. This is real time critical, mission critical information that really guides our decision making process in terms of, you know, ‘How many people are we going to need to evacuate in the lower Russian River during a flood? What kinds of warnings do we need to make sure that we are pushing out?’” Hopkins said. “I cannot possibly stress enough how critical this information is for the purpose of public safety.”

Asked to comment on how firings, buyouts, and budget cuts could impact Northern California’s forecasting, NOAA public affairs officer Susan Buchanan sent a statement. “Per longstanding practice, we are not discussing internal personnel and management matters,” the statement said. “NOAA remains dedicated to its mission, providing timely information, research and resources that serve the American public and ensure our nation’s environmental and economic resilience. We continue to provide weather information, forecasts and warnings pursuant to our public safety mission.” 

The National Weather Service budget is about $1.3 billion dollars a year, which averages out to about $8 or 9 dollars per year per taxpayer. 

“It's shocking to me that our country would consider dismantling the institution that provides the data that drives fundamental public safety decisions, that keeps people safe during floods, during fires, that allows us to share real time information,” Hopkins said. “It flies in the face of a desire to protect human life and safety.”