In mid-September, KRCB hosted a debate on Measure J, the current ballot measure that seeks to limit the size of animal farms in Sonoma County.

The newsroom set out to look more into various statements made by both sides during the debate. Here’s KRCB news director Greta Mart…

Greta Mart: Listeners, we’ve thoroughly examined the many aspects of the measure and our Measure J debate. In our reporting, we have repeatedly come up against contrasting expert opinions. Counter narratives that are difficult to parse. Facts that are true in one sense but misleading when other parameters are factored in. In a word, it’s complicated. And virtually impossible to fact-check in a straightforward way..

So as Sonoma County voters make their decision in the final days leading up to the Nov. 5 election, we are presenting our listeners a final summary of what we’ve heard in our reporting on Measure J.

I’m here with KRCB’s Noah Abrams. Measure J asks voters, “should Sonoma County ban concentrated animal feeding operations, known as CAFOs?”

Let’s look at what both sides have to say about Measure J vis-a-vis the economy. Here’s ’No on J’s Mike Weber, he’s a farmer; then Kristina Garfinkel from the ‘Yes on J’ campaign:

Mike Weber: You take out the large farms, you lose your large creameries. There are two of them, Albert Strauss and Clover Sonoma. When those two go, the small farms have no place to sell their milk. You also, by losing the large farms, you lose the two big mills for feed in our community. And when those two mills go, the small farms of any size lose their access to feed, so they again, can't get the food they need for their animals and they can't sell the product they're producing.

Kristina Garfinkel: [An economic analysis of Measure J commissioned by the Sonoma County Board of Supervisors] is a cute little thought experiment that looks at eliminating all animal agriculture in the county. In the report, they admit they could not identify how many CAFOs are in the county, because it's something that's hidden and hard to find, and so they just wrote a report on eliminating all animal agriculture. Which, of course, you're going to have downstream consequences from that…As far as economic consequences, we've talked to economists. It's negligible. You would maybe see a dip in sales tax revenue, but property tax values would go up.

Noah Abrams: So as you just heard, the two sides of the campaign have put forward competing and really divergent forecasts for how the passage of Measure J would impact the local economy. As Kristina with the ‘Yes’ campaign just said, they contend the impact won’t  be noticeable, and the 'Yes' campaign argues any losses could possibly be overcome, possibly with a growth in the number of small producers.

The ‘No’ campaign says passing Measure J would be nothing short of ruinous for all the animal ag producers in Sonoma County.

I want to turn to an expert you spoke with Greta, Scott Brown. 

Greta Mart: Right, he’s a livestock economist, and professor emeritus at University of Missouri’s College of Agriculture, Food & Natural Resources.  

Noah Abrams: He makes an important point about how the animal ag economy works more broadly.

Scott Brown: There are economies of scale, scale as producers get larger. So if you limit how much they can grow, all else equal, they face higher production costs and that ultimately is borne by consumers.

Noah Abrams: Economies of scale - that is the thrust of the "No on J" campaign's point about the economic impacts.. Basically, take out a large portion of the economic engine for crucial secondary industries and everything falls apart.

Greta Mart: And what about the UC Cooperative Extension report, commissioned by the Sonoma County board of supervisors?

Noah Abrams: Again, going back to my interview with Randi Black, the dairy expert and researcher who helped author that report. She says the dire economic forecast found in the report… that is…a loss of nearly 500 million dollars and some 1,300 jobs from the county's economy if Measure J passes…..is due to the shock that would come from losing 30% of the county's animal ag production via the CAFO ban, and the hit those support business would take.

Randi Black: Specifically thinking about veterinary care feed mills and our local processors, and likely to the point that they no longer could continue to operate. We actually went and had conversations with a number of the managers of those businesses and they, for the most part, confirmed our assumptions. So the group then determined that if passed, likely every animal production facility would be impacted by the measure. And so we chose to include all of animal production facilities. And that's not to say it was from immediate closure, but somewhat from high feed costs, lack of veteran care, lack of a processor, lack of labor, lack of farm worker housing, and then the potential closure from being determined a CAFO in the future.

Greta Mart: Got it, so those domino effects could be large.

Noah Abrams:  Yeah, there is a lot of that can be said about the interconnections..Here’s Black again…

Randi Black: Really our entire Sonoma County agricultural sector is really tied together. This business depends on this business, depends on this business. And if we pull one of those cogs from the machinery, we really disrupt the entire operation. And so it's really impactful, even if it feels like, gosh, just this one guy…it really does impact the entire system.

GM: Thank you, Noah….our last segment on Measure J before the polls close Tuesday will be through the lens of animal welfare. 

You’re tuned to KRCB.