photo credit: courtesy Bay Area Council Economic Institute 
Graphic showing economic sectors adding the most and losing the most jobs across the North Bay region.

While not quite roaring back following a COVID-era decline, the North Bay's economy is in fairly good shape.

That's according to information presented this morning in a conference held by the North Bay Leadership Council.

Offices are more occupied, airport passenger numbers are soaring and recent minimum wage increases, including for fast food workers, do not appear to be holding the region back.

Those are the general findings presented by Jeff Bellasario of the Bay Area Council Economic Institute.

On the upside, Bellasario said a key marker of economic activity---road congestion and commuting....is illustrative.

"Fewer people are taking transit, those office workers are not back, but the workers in the service sector, in construction, in manufacturing, the ones that maybe don't have a transit option or a remote work option, they are the ones that are coming back to work and really, we're looking almost back to where we were pre-pandemic in terms of traffic," Bellasario said.

Data also suggests tourism is recovering. While Sonoma County hotel occupancy is down 13 percent compared to before COVID, passenger traffic at Sonoma County's airport is up 62 percent. That's compared to double digits declines at San Francisco, Oakland and San Jose.

At the same time, there are headwinds. Bellasario said office vacancies in Santa Rosa hover around 10 percent. But that's better than many other Bay Area locales, where work-from-home is hurting more than just commercial landlords.

"The downtown economies that are dependent on offices and office workers have really struggled to come back. And what that has meant is that we now have fewer restaurants and barber shops and gyms in those areas too that are not employing people because that 9-5 worker is just not there."

Bellasario said city and county officials need to re-envision downtowns to restore vitality. He expects it will take a decade for the office market to normalize, but that falling lease-rates could fuel a revival.

In one survey cited at the conference, 53 percent of respondents identified the region's affordability and housing prices as major challenges. That reality is fueling an outflow of young adults, Bellasario said, robbing the region of people launching careers and starting new households.

"Population is down significantly from where we were in 2015-2016," Bellasario added.

He said that although that started with regional wildfires, the fact the trend is continuing presents a challenge. Economists regularly cite new household formation as a key economic driver.

It's also causing the area's demographics to skew older. The median age in Sonoma County is 43 and a half. In Marin its 48. That compares to 37 statewide.

Marakeshia Smith, Santa Rosa's City Manager, who also presented at the conference, said affordable housing is a fundamental issue and one the city is redoubling it's efforts on.

"When people cannot afford housing, attracting and retaining skilled workers, it becomes challenging. The City of Santa Rosa, we are working on zoning, we [have a] pro-housing designation, we have certified our housing element, but we have to continue to do more," Smith said.

While the out-migration of residents is starting to reverse, it will likely continue being an overall drag, Bellasario, said.

"You are now on almost a ten year trend of population decline, which for us is a pretty good proxy for the ability to grow economically, if you are not growing your workforce, you are not growing your population it's very tough to add jobs and add opportunities."